Prediction Market Funds

ELON BASKET

A curated basket of prediction market positions tracking the personal success of Elon Musk.

By PMF Finance

The basket organizes every market by the kind of success its settlement would establish: a technological breakthrough, commercial scale, greater wealth, greater influence, or a personal win.

This is not the same as investing in Elon's companies, but instead a way to trade on the success of the public individual.

Latest Gauge
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Awaiting latest print
Markets
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Every active market
Rebalanced
Daily
16:00 UTC snapshot

How Elon Wins

One basket: durable themes plus active markets that can settle this week or month.

Active methodology weights Six ways to win
Click a sleeve to explore its markets 25 / 25 / 15 / 15 / 2 / 18
Selected Sleeve

Technical Breakthroughs

25% target allocation -- markets
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Theoretical index · current recipe since Aug 4

ELONW vs. ELONL Theoretical Performance

Track the rules-based constituent baskets that ELONW and ELONL are designed to hold.

ELONW -- Loading theoretical performance
ELONL -- Loading theoretical performance
Loading theoretical ELONW and ELONL index history.
ELONW · theoretical index ELONL · theoretical index Loading theoretical histories

Public theoretical performance begins with the thematic paired-share construction recipe on August 7, 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Earlier recipe regimes are omitted so the comparison stays like-for-like. Each visible series starts at 0% for the selected window; it is not current vault NAV or realized fund performance. Equal-and-opposite returns are not guaranteed.

Methodology

How We Built the Basket

How do you invest in the success of an individual?

The celebrity has emerged as a parasocial relationship between the individual and public. People have long followed tabloids and became loyal fans of their favorite musicians, athletes, and lately: businessmen

This type of basket allows the public to directly invest in the success (or failure) of a celebrity, giving the public the opportunity to monetize their fandom and the celebrity a powerful signal of of the success of their brand.

How it works

01

Define Relevance

Managers select one favorable binary outcome for every core market. Approved recurring templates add only outcomes with a clear Elon-win interpretation and preserve the exact opposite token for ELONL.

02

Build Packages

One market is selected for each Tesla and SpaceX weekly-close, weekly-high, and monthly-close slot. Daily weights use sqrt(paired 5¢ capacity) inside fixed 9% company buckets.

03

Allocate 82 / 18

The core receives 82% and Win Now receives 18% as shared pair budgets. Tesla and SpaceX each target 9%, with unavailable slots redistributed inside Win Now.

04

Freeze, Mark & Roll

Weights freeze at the 16:00 UTC daily construction and both token sides mark hourly. Terminal successors and two-strike book failures trigger controlled rolls with divisor continuity.