Prediction Market Funds

BENCHMARK STABILITY INDEX Methodology · API
Benchmark · Stability · Active

STABILITY INDEX

Putting a price on nothing happening.

By PMF Finance

The Stability Index is a financial benchmark intended to measure global geopolitical risk by using prediction market prices. A universe of markets are filtered and reviewed to fit the theme on a daily basis. The top 50 markets are weighted by liquidity and updated hourly.

While prediction market prices are an accurate forecast, the liquidity in a market is a measurement of trust. Weighting the index by liquidity shows the most trusted predictions on world events. A higher index is a sign of more stability in global affairs.

Constituents -- priced constituents
Exec. Capacity -- current basket
24h Volume -- underlying markets
Weighted Bid/Ask Spread -- quoted constituents
Performance

Index History

Base 100.00 0 points 30D
Current Basket

Index Legs

Market Leg Price Weight 24h Change
Loading basket...
Methodology

How The Index Is Written

JSON

Universe Filtering

Markets algorithmically searched to match the stability theme, avoid excluded topics, and pass liquidity, volume, spread, expiry, and tradability checks before they can enter the reviewed universe.

Manual Review

Candidates enter the active index universe only after manager review of the selected event. Markets may be reviewed multiple times as conditions change and new markets are added no sooner than a daily basis.

Weighting

Weight Equation wi,t = Ci,t / Σj=1NCj,t
Ci,t = execution capacity Weights normalize to 100% of the live index.

Execution capacity supplies C, using the largest available liquidity or depth measure. Final weights normalize each leg by total basket capacity, so larger executable markets carry more of the basket.

Keyword Search + Market Cap

Discovery starts from configured keyword and theme searches across live Polymarket markets. Live basket is capped at 50 markets.