{
  "basket_maximum_percent": 100,
  "currency": "USD",
  "frequency_status": "Observed share of 2006–2025 years; not a forecast or bond-implied probability",
  "historical_exceedance": [
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 65,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 625,
      "years_at_or_above": 13
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 35,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 1875,
      "years_at_or_above": 7
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 30,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 3125,
      "years_at_or_above": 6
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 20,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 4375,
      "years_at_or_above": 4
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 20,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 5625,
      "years_at_or_above": 4
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 20,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 6875,
      "years_at_or_above": 4
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 20,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 8125,
      "years_at_or_above": 4
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 20,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 9375,
      "years_at_or_above": 4
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 20,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 10625,
      "years_at_or_above": 4
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 10,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 11875,
      "years_at_or_above": 2
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 10,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 13125,
      "years_at_or_above": 2
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 10,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 14375,
      "years_at_or_above": 2
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 10,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 15625,
      "years_at_or_above": 2
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 5,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 16875,
      "years_at_or_above": 1
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 5,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 18125,
      "years_at_or_above": 1
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 5,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 19375,
      "years_at_or_above": 1
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 5,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 20625,
      "years_at_or_above": 1
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 5,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 21875,
      "years_at_or_above": 1
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 0,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 23125,
      "years_at_or_above": 0
    },
    {
      "historical_frequency_percent": 0,
      "observed_years": 20,
      "threshold": 24375,
      "years_at_or_above": 0
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 0,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 431,
      "year": 2006,
      "yes_markets": 0
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 10,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 2895,
      "year": 2007,
      "yes_markets": 2
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 5,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 992,
      "year": 2008,
      "yes_markets": 1
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 0,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 121,
      "year": 2009,
      "yes_markets": 0
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 0,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 94,
      "year": 2010,
      "yes_markets": 0
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 0,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 137,
      "year": 2011,
      "yes_markets": 0
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 0,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 248,
      "year": 2012,
      "yes_markets": 0
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 0,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 495,
      "year": 2013,
      "yes_markets": 0
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 5,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 650,
      "year": 2014,
      "yes_markets": 1
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 15,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 3194,
      "year": 2015,
      "yes_markets": 3
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 5,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 1274,
      "year": 2016,
      "yes_markets": 1
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 45,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 10868,
      "year": 2017,
      "yes_markets": 9
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 90,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 22868,
      "year": 2018,
      "yes_markets": 18
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 5,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 703,
      "year": 2019,
      "yes_markets": 1
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 45,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 11116,
      "year": 2020,
      "yes_markets": 9
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 15,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 3560,
      "year": 2021,
      "yes_markets": 3
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 5,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 946,
      "year": 2022,
      "yes_markets": 1
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 0,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 157,
      "year": 2023,
      "yes_markets": 0
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 5,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 1837,
      "year": 2024,
      "yes_markets": 1
    },
    {
      "history_status": "later-archive reconstruction; not original-date settlement",
      "payout_percent": 65,
      "source": "calfire/raw/redbook-2025.pdf",
      "structures_destroyed": 16627,
      "year": 2025,
      "yes_markets": 13
    }
  ],
  "maximum_approximation_error_percentage_points": 2.5,
  "maximum_jump_percent": 5,
  "measurement": "All Structures Destroyed annual total in CAL FIRE Wildfire Activity Statistics",
  "methodology": "calfire-structures-destroyed/0.4.0",
  "observation_period": "CAL FIRE reporting year",
  "operator": ">=",
  "reference_cap": 25000,
  "reference_payout": "100 × min(count / 25000, 1)",
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source_manifest_sha256": "77cb3de707ca6fad3216aad54c39573c989ca26cddd82dd727883cd258f37168",
  "source_snapshot": "calfire-redbook-2025-frozen-v1",
  "status": "provisional payout design; not fitted to insured losses or market prices",
  "threshold_generation": "625 + 1250 × (i − 1), i = 1…20; published integer thresholds govern settlement",
  "thresholds": [
    625,
    1875,
    3125,
    4375,
    5625,
    6875,
    8125,
    9375,
    10625,
    11875,
    13125,
    14375,
    15625,
    16875,
    18125,
    19375,
    20625,
    21875,
    23125,
    24375
  ],
  "unit_payout": 1,
  "weights_percent": [
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5,
    5
  ]
}