{
  "title": "FOMC Federal Funds Rate Forecast Errors Comparison",
  "figure": 1,
  "authors": [
    "Anthony M. Diercks",
    "Jared Dean Katz",
    "Jonathan H. Wright"
  ],
  "paper": "Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets",
  "series": "Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2026-010",
  "paper_date": "2026-02-12",
  "source_page": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/kalshi-and-the-rise-of-macro-markets.htm",
  "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2026010pap.pdf",
  "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2026.010",
  "pdf_page": 5,
  "printed_page": 4,
  "retrieved_at": "2026-09-27T17:43:52.750556+00:00",
  "source_sha256": "a8534d16c9bad649ae90ab4de769526736b982102844020649d97918e7d7e96b",
  "image": {
    "path": "fed-rate-forecast-comparison.png",
    "sha256": "a45ba072d289b26ccc29850f5e24dc3131a1f6adfdfc7672154bfd45d947743e",
    "width": 1654,
    "height": 700
  },
  "extraction": "Poppler pdfimages -f 5 -l 5 -png 2026010pap.pdf figure; image figure-000.png, PDF object 116. Original embedded RGB image, with no redraw, resampling or digitization. Axes, series and legend retained.",
  "reuse": {
    "policy_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/disclaimer.htm",
    "policy_retrieved_at": "2026-09-27T17:43:52.750556+00:00",
    "policy_sha256": "6a43515807b6d6f018a56f760d3b08539eb38846d005f0b93b6e2d1be4bfd09c",
    "basis": "Board website information is public domain unless otherwise indicated, with source attribution. No separate copyright or third-party ownership notice appears on Figure 1. This is a review of the published figure, not a licence to underlying market datasets.",
    "paper_notice": "FEDS papers are preliminary author research. The cover requests author clearance for publication references beyond acknowledgement to protect the tentative character. No author clearance or endorsement is claimed; the figure is attributed and the findings described as preliminary.",
    "notice": "fed-rate-forecast-NOTICE.md"
  },
  "interpretation": {
    "horizon": "Up to 160 days before FOMC decisions; study observations since 2022",
    "metric": "Mean absolute effective federal funds rate forecast error; vertical axis labelled percent in original figure",
    "survey_bars": "One-half standard deviation of survey forecast errors; not confidence intervals",
    "market_measure": "Last-trade prices used in main analysis; not an executable bid/ask assessment",
    "limits": "Historical macroeconomic evidence; does not establish performance, adoption, liquidity or savings for insurance peril markets."
  }
}