# Published Fed-rate forecast comparison: source and reuse notice

Figure 1 from Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz and Jonathan H. Wright, *Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets*, Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2026-010, February 12, 2026. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, PDF page 5 / printed page 4. [Paper](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2026010pap.pdf#page=5) · [DOI](https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2026.010).

The original embedded chart image is extracted without redrawing, digitizing, resampling or changing its axes, series or legend. The HTML caption paraphrases its interpretation. The source PDF and website-policy snapshot are retained in the research workspace, outside the public package. Their hashes, the image hash, extraction method and retrieval time are in `fed-rate-forecast-source.json`.

## Reuse basis

The [Board's website policy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/disclaimer.htm), reviewed September 27, 2026, permits copying and distributing website information with attribution unless otherwise indicated, and excludes separately identified third-party materials. No figure-specific copyright or third-party ownership notice was found on Figure 1. The public package includes the published figure and attribution, without Board logos or seals. This review does not grant rights to underlying CME, Bloomberg or Kalshi datasets. The authors' replication repository separately describes research permission for Kalshi data and excludes licensed futures and Bloomberg data; none is imported here.

The FEDS cover describes preliminary author research and requests author clearance for publication references beyond acknowledgement to protect that tentative character. No author clearance or endorsement is claimed. PMF attributes the figure and qualifies the finding as preliminary research, rather than Board policy or an endorsement of PMF. The general website reuse permission is the basis for reproducing the published figure.

## Interpretation

Lower mean absolute forecast error means greater historical accuracy. Survey bars represent half a standard deviation of forecast errors, not confidence intervals. The main research uses last-trade prices, including carried-forward trades where applicable; the chart does not establish executable prices. Macro forecast performance does not establish insurance forecast performance, market depth, institutional adoption or cost savings.

PMF's specification licence remains pending; that status does not change the source figure's terms.